November Week 4 Community Highlights: Bear, Bull and Crab

We are back with more community highlights for the Thanksgiving week. Apologies for last week as NEAR dipped from $9.80 to $8.75 in the duration of writing and completely invalidated some of the analysis highlighted.

Crypto markets have been subdued, following the lead of Bitcoin. BTC has been range bound last week, with very strong support at the 56k level but strong resistance at the 60k barrier. Just as BTC was making a move up, the news of India banning cryptos cause BTC to sell off a bit and for Tether to crash in Indian markets. The USDT/INR exchange rate was trading at 74.37 and fell all the way to ₹60 before recovering.

Indian government has since backtracked from its outright ban and is potentially tightening crypto regulations. Indian has been down this road before; in March of this year, India was considering a law that would ban cryptocurrencies, fine anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets. Their mission is quite clear, push the citizens away from “private” blockchains and onto their own digital rupee to be launched in Q2 sometime in 2022. Some have considered the bans on crypto by China and India to be a huge geopolitical mistake, while some see a future where the digital Yuan is a powerhouse.

In other geo-economic news, the Turkish Lira continues to lose value and suffered a 15% drop in on day and is down nearly 40% compared to dollar just this year. Inflation in Turkey is sitting at a whopping 20% with no end in sight; Apple even halted online sales in Turkey Tuesday in response. Despite all of this, Erdogan has handcuffed the Turkish central bank and kept interest rates high, only slashing rates to 15%. There have been small protests in the capital Ankara and Istanbul against the current regime. Opposition parties have been calling for early elections, chastising the government’s influence over central bank policy.

As for NEAR price action, Merchants expectations are also bit subdued. There are large clusters of predictions in some important levels: $9.20-$9.40, $9.90-$10.10, and ~$10.40. For the most part predictions are realizing the strength of the $9 support level as 88% of predictions are above $9.

Merchants Analysis:

BTC is still in his range around $60.000 and $55.600 if we lose this level we will go down to lower levels. We’ll probably stay in this range at least until Friday where we have options expiring around $58.000. But it wouldn’t surprise us if we see the price going to $62.000 during the week.

On the NEAR/USDT on the daily timeframe we can identify a range between $8.39 and $9.89. Price will consolidate in this zone probably during the same time as BTC’s range. On an hourly timeframe we see the clear resistance at $8.39.

In terms of momentum we see a small increase and a new W structure forming as well. This means that the momentum is getting back and we can get a nice move to the upside as well. Be ready to take profits when NEAR gets back to newer highs. We will be here to remind you!

Merchants Bear of the Week:

I am seeing a little bit correction going on in the market for more than a week which can further extend to month end so I assume there might be more dump in coming days. With Thanksgiving and holidays coming up, there could be continued decreasing volume. There is general upwards trend for NEAR but if we do break the lower boundary, NEAR can retrace to the $8.40 support.

-Civilian_nit

Merchants Crab of the Week:

NEAR is in very healthy consolidation. Near is taking support on the trend line, after consolidating near the support it will move up slowly and face some resistance near $10.4

- Akash_whitehat

Merchants Bull of the Week:

“NEAR is ready for the fifth Elliott wave and also forming a rising wedge kind of a pattern. NEAR is not losing support in this short term downtrend market and has bounced off in daily chart which shows the strength of NEAR. My prediction for 30 November is $10.695”

-Amar P

Two catalysts for NEAR move will likely be if BTC can break out of its 56k-60k range and volumes. Historically November and December have been strong months for stocks and crypto alike. 2017 and 2020 year end were very strong bull runs for crypto as traditional markets are closed while crypto never sleeps.

Hopefully this gives Merchants a broad overview of what to lookout for in the upcoming week. This is not meant to be treated as financial advice, merely educational content. For more technical analysis and educational content about NEAR, come join us at TG and Twitter:
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Happy Thanksgiving!

We are a financial guild dedicated to technical and fundamental analysis of everything NEAR related and crypto markets. Check us out at merchantsofnear.com