October Week 1 Community Highlights: Bear, Bull and Crab
Hey Merchants, we are back with the October contest week 1 highlights and bigger than ever with our most submissions to date. To showcase some of great new analysis we will mirror Noah’s arc and feature two Bears, two Bulls and two Crabs. But first let’s quickly recap end of September and current market conditions.
NEAR ended September trading sideways as crypto and equity markets held their breaths in wake of the Chinese Evergrande debt crisis. The worst has likely not yet come as Evergrande missed yet another offshore interest payment. Investors have been speculating to what the Chinese Government response might be. Meanwhile, Beijing has indicated they are willing to cushion the blow, likely in the form of purchasing bonds and bailouts.
On the Western frontier, US Democrats and Republicans are battling over whether or not to raise the US Debt ceiling again, after the 2 year extension agreed upon in 2019 was reached in August. The important date here is October 18th; that is when the US will run out of debt ceiling flexibility. Biden just passed a bill that will fund the government for an additional 9 weeks till Dec 3rd, but the pressing issue of raising the debt ceiling looms. So far neither party is giving any grounds on Government spending and raising of the debt ceiling.
The financial solvency of the worlds two largest economies has direct consequences for the crypto and equity markets. As we saw last year in the pandemic liquidity crisis, people sell off their stocks and particularly crypto for cash. Bitcoin went from over 10k to 4.5k in a mere number of days before recovering. A similarly sharp short term drop is not out of the question if these two situations get out of hand. Key phrase here is short term. In the long term, the more irresponsible and rampant central banks and government get, more validity is given to cryptocurrencies. Governments will continue to bail out corporations, print money, purchase junk bonds, and drive up inflation. Bitcoin and crypto is already viewed by some as an inflation hedge and a treasury asset, and that view will only get more popular.
As for community sentiment, Merchants are feeling quite bullish again to start off “Uptober”. Over 90% of submissions are predicting NEAR to finish above its $6.93 closing price in September for the week. We saw a very strong support level at the $6.20-$6.50 range and now NEAR is trading handidly above that. Predictions are quite spread out from $7.75-$10 range with the highest concentration settling down in the $9.20-$9.50 levels. Bitcoin is currently retesting 48k and 50k resistance levels; if it does break the super strong 50k resistance, that is how we can see NEAR make its way back to $10.
Merchants ‘Bears’ of the week:
Near is forming a descending triangle. Historically in October first half BTC is bullish and other alts will stay calm due to low volume. I predict NEAR will continue the descending trinagle pattern for another week and finish at $6.80.
-harrynewt
“Just like last week’s analysis, I do not think BTC and NEAR have broken out of their downwards trend. Volume is still lower so I think NEAR will fall back down to the $6-$6.50 zone.”
-anhkhoa
Merchants ‘Crabs’ of the week:
“There is an strong support zone on 50D EMA at around $7.50 and the RSI is in the consolidation. If 20D EMA breaks, we may see $10+ in the coming week, but I think Near will trade sideways and my price prediction is $7.789”
-Bernard
“ On 1D timeframe, Near price is at resistance of Fibonacci 0.382 , if we break above 8.6$ price may shoot above 9.8$ at Fibonacci 0.236. But the 10MA crossed over the 20MA recently so that would signal Near to trade sideways or slightly down this week.”
-Ayazmd786
Merchants ‘Bulls’ of the Week:
There is strong support at $6.5 as the closing Candle of last month did not fall below $6.5. I think NEAR will come back to bullish, if NEAR can break out of the downwards parallel channel to maybe $8.50, we could see it hit $10.30-$10.50 resistance.
-anhtuantran
There is a reversal happening as Near has broken off from the descending triangle on the lower 4h TF which rendered a much anticipated power move toward the upside for traders as well as reclaiming the $7.6 range. An important range to hold in the next retrace when it happens. On the higher TF of 12H and 1D, a flag can be seen which we has indeed just broken off but unfortunately not much volume to validate the breakout. Should it hold and bounce above the yellow highlighted line, a bullish continuation pattern can be expected along with our MA & MACD crossing.
-Tokok69
As we can see from all spectrums of analysis, NEAR price action really depends on what happens. Can NEAR breakout of the downwards channel? If so we can easily move towards double digits again. We could also see NEAR volume continue to remain lowish and BTC get rejected from 50k level, to wit NEAR might retest the $6.20-$6.50 support. Might not be the definitive predictions you are looking for but in the cryptosphere, so much can happen in such short time.
Thanks for the Merchants for submitting predictions. If you want a full scope of everyone’s analysis or have questions on market conditions, be sure to join our TG community.
https://t.me/merchantsofnear
Best of luck and happy hodling!
